Bitcoin prices remain under pressure despite several positive factors, including the end of the US government shutdown and buying by treasury firms. Analysts say the crypto market remains range-bound in the absence of a strong macro catalyst and a change in sentiment after BTC fell below $100,000.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant outflows, with funds such as IBIT, FBTC, ARKB and GBTC selling hundreds of millions of dollars in BTC in the past few days. Weak ADP jobs data added to the pressure on the market, while long-term holders and whales are seen taking profits after Bitcoin reached a cyclical peak expected based on historical patterns.
Several firms such as 10x Research and Matrixport reported drastic changes in trends, investor behavior and trading volume, suggesting the market is entering a bearish phase with a small effect. Crypto trading volume has fallen 50% in a year, reducing liquidity and the effectiveness of positive catalysts.
QCP Capital expects volatile Q4 following weak US data, but says potential Fed rate cuts and strong corporate earnings could support risk assets through 2026.
Technical indicators are showing weakness, with bearish patterns such as head-and-shoulders indicating a possible downside. Coinglass derivatives data confirms continued selling pressure, even as BTC recovers slightly to around $103,000.
