Oil prices remain under pressure after falling around 15% this year, and JPMorgan warned that the situation could become more challenging in the next two years as supply is expected to grow much faster than demand.
According to the investment bank, the oversupply driven mainly by non-OPEC+ producers, especially the United States, risks creating a prolonged structural imbalance in the market.
While demand is expected to continue to grow, the rate of supply growth is projected to be up to three times higher, thus pressuring prices.
JPMorgan expects Brent oil prices to potentially fall by up to 50% by the end of 2027, with prices falling to around $30 a barrel from around $63.50 currently.
Brent is also expected to break below $60 in 2026 before falling to a low of US$50, while the average price in 2027 is forecast to be around US$42 a barrel.
The supply glut is projected to reach 2.8 million barrels per day in 2026 and remain high in 2027, with the prospect of US government intervention seen as low given the pro-oil stance of the Donald Trump administration.
JPMorgan also stressed that the burden of market adjustment is expected to be more supply-side, leaving downside risks to prices to remain dominant in the medium to long term.
