The Most Critical Week Yet? Fed, Magnificent 7 & Trade War Risks!
Welcome to this week’s Market Analysis! 🚀 This week has been nothing short of extraordinary in the global financial scene, with an unprecedented concentration of central bank decisions and earnings reports from mega-corporations that could dictate market direction. Here’s what every Malaysian investor needs to know.
1️⃣ The Fed’s ‘Data Blackout’ Challenge 📉
The US Federal Reserve met on October 28-29 and is expected to cut rates by 25bps (setting the range at 3.75%-4.00%). However, an unprecedented challenge is unfolding. The ongoing 18-day US government shutdown has left the Fed without crucial economic data—retail sales, industrial output, housing stats—all missing!
This data blackout makes it harder than ever for the Fed to provide clear forward guidance, leaving markets on edge. Malaysian investors should keep an eye on USD volatility and risk appetite in regional markets.
2️⃣ The Magnificent 7 Earnings Could Shake $15 Trillion Market 💻💸
This week, more than $15 trillion in market capitalization is reporting earnings, featuring giants like Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon.
Expectations? The Magnificent Seven are projected to post 14% YoY profit growth in Q3—far outpacing the S&P 500’s 7.8%. The narrowing gap since 2022 signals a broad AI diffusion trend driving tech dominance.
For Malaysian investors, this means tech-related equities and ETFs might see continued momentum—but beware of profit-taking volatility.
3️⃣ Gold Falls After 10 Weeks, Trade Risk Eases 🪙📉
After a 10-week streak of gains, gold dropped -1.3%, from $4,125 to $4,070, as investors took profits.
Despite the pullback, safe-haven demand remains strong above $4,000, fueled by major institutional flows—central banks added 800+ tons in H1 2025!
Moreover, confirmation of the Trump-Xi White House Summit has reduced near-term tail risk of a trade war, supporting equities. Malaysian investors might consider balancing portfolios between safe-haven metals and growth equities this week.
4️⃣ Global Synchronized Easing: Risk & Opportunity 🌐💹
It’s not just the Fed. Other major central banks like ECB (expected -25bps), BoJ (steady), and BoC (potential cut) are also making moves.
This synchronized easing cycle generally supports risk assets but also fuels FX volatility, especially USD/JPY testing ¥153. Malaysian forex traders and exporters should stay alert.
✅ Key Takeaways for Malaysian Investors:
Gold pullback may offer buying opportunities above $4,000.
Tech mega-cap earnings could drive global equities and ETFs.
Watch USD volatility and global monetary policy cues.
Keep an eye on geopolitical developments, like trade talks.
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