Goldman Sachs expects the September U.S. jobs report to show modest growth, with 80,000 jobs added, higher than the consensus forecast of 55,000. Private sector growth is expected to be strong based on leading data indicators, but a 10,000 job loss in the federal government is expected to hold back the overall tally.
The September jobs report, delayed due to the prolonged government shutdown, is expected to play a key role in providing a fresh look at labor market conditions. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%. Wage growth in August is also expected to be revised up, although this year’s revisions have mostly been downward.
Analysts are also expecting new dates for the upcoming October and November jobs reports. They estimate nonfarm payrolls in October to fall by 50,000, due to the impact of the delayed termination of layoff programs. The October unemployment rate will not be published but is seen rising due to unpaid leave and broader labor market slack.
The jobs data will be a key determinant of the Federal Reserve’s December interest rate meeting. The Fed has cut rates twice to support a weak labor market. Meanwhile, the direction of policy next month remains unclear after more than a month of no official data.
With Fed officials divided on the need for additional rate cuts, the upcoming jobs report could be a deciding factor in whether the central bank keeps rates on hold or eases monetary policy again.
