Bitcoin investors are now facing a new on-chain signal as ‘OG’ returns to the market, as investors await the Fed’s policy decision that is due to be announced soon.
The market is already expecting the Fed to cut rates at its December meeting, with a cut of around 25 basis points already priced into the current price.
However, on-chain data shows that the actual sentiment is still mixed. Over 2,400 BTC that are more than ten years old have returned to the market this week, involving over $215 million worth of old supply.
Coins like this are rarely touched, and the movement usually signals distribution activity rather than accumulation.
When old supply resurfaces amid weak demand, history has shown that prices tend to be depressed. ETF inflows have also remained modest, while net flows indicate institutional interest has cooled compared to the market’s previous peaks.
This suggests that the price rally may be difficult to sustain without fresh liquidity support.
Nevertheless, institutional analysts remain bullish on the long-term cycle.
Bernstein argues that Bitcoin has the potential to move beyond the traditional halving cycle and is now entering a phase of broader adoption. The firm expects Bitcoin to hit $150,000 by 2026, with the potential to reach nearly $200,000 by 2027.
For now, the market’s direction remains dependent on the Fed’s actions. If policymakers do indeed cut rates as expected, liquidity is expected to improve and could strengthen the risk-on asset market by early 2026.
