Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have entered a ‘blackout’ period ahead of their official meeting.
This week, no Fed officials will appear before the media or mainstream platforms, leaving market attention focused entirely on US economic data scheduled to be released in the days leading up to December 9–10.
The market is evaluating statements from several Fed officials who have given mixed signals in recent weeks.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that people are still feeling the effects of inflationary pressures, thus reiterating his hawkish stance amid the division of views in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
At the same time, several other officials have given dovish signals, supporting the possibility of policy easing following the weakness of recent economic data.
After the longest US government shutdown in history lasting 43 days, key economic data for November 2025 has finally been released, painting a picture of a slow and uncertain economy.
The labor report showed just 119,000 new jobs were added, mostly in lower-wage sectors such as food services and healthcare, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%.
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 52.2. Consumer sentiment also fell to a seven-month low, reflecting public concern about the economy being hit by rising prices.
Markets are now expecting the Fed to lean toward cutting interest rates ahead of the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
The focus has shifted from fighting inflation alone to stabilizing sluggish economic growth. Markets are expecting a rate cut of between 25 and 50 basis points.
According to CME FedWatch, the market is now placing a near 87% chance of a rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting, up from 71% last week. This suggests market confidence in policy easing is strengthening.
Ahead of the deadline, market players will be paying close attention to data releases throughout the week, particularly ADP Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, Initial Jobless Claims and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE.
The combination of dovish statements from Fed officials, weak US economic data and market attention to this week's economic documents is shaping the narrative that a rate cut is imminent, putting pressure on the US dollar ahead of the official announcement next week.
