CIMB Securities expects total vehicle industry (TIV) sales in Malaysia to decline in 2026.
The decline is expected to occur due to rising vehicle prices, as well as the increase in excise duties that will be enforced starting next year.
According to the firm, vehicle sales in 2026 may reach around 774,000 units, lower than the forecast of 790,000 units for this year.
In addition, weakening consumer sentiment due to inflationary pressures is also expected to have a negative impact on vehicle demand.
CIMB Securities explained that the slowdown in sales was also influenced by the end of the tax exemption for imported fully built electric vehicles (EVs) starting January 2026.
However, the end of this tax exemption is expected to lead to an increase in EV purchases in December 2025.
The sales rate for November recorded an increase of 5.1% compared to the previous year, supported by promotional methods and early purchases of EVs before the tax exemption ends.
As of the first 11 months of 2025, total TIVs recorded 727,834 units, down 1.2% compared to the same period last year. The official forecast for the whole of 2025 is 780,000 units.
CIMB also expects local brands such as Proton and Perodua to remain resilient, driven by first-time car buyers, stable market demand, and the RON95 petrol subsidy through the BUDI95 initiative.
