The average US tariff rate has jumped from around 2.5% in early 2025 to over 15% in less than a year, indirectly putting it at its highest level in over 80 years and marking the beginning of a prolonged era of trade protectionism.
Analysts expect little change in 2026, with a figure around 15% remaining the baseline assumption, despite some sectoral exemptions and a possible legal challenge in the Supreme Court.
While the courts may strike down some of the president’s tariff powers, major banks expect the current rates to be replaced by a new mechanism, keeping tariff levels largely unchanged.
Tariff revenue of over US$236 billion in 2025 reinforces the policy stance, with the Trump administration insisting that tariffs contribute to national wealth and security.
For businesses, 2026 is expected to be a period of real tariff impact, as pre-tariff inventories deplete and new costs need to be absorbed, changing the pricing and supply chain landscape.
