The market focus last week was clearly on the US jobs report when the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data recorded stronger-than-expected figures.
The steady job gains, supported by a persistently low unemployment rate, have further reinforced the narrative that the US labor market remains resilient despite the high interest rate environment.
This situation indirectly supports the strength of the US dollar (USD), while prompting investors to reassess expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Entering this week, the market focus has shifted to several key inflation and spending data that will determine the next direction for the USD.
TUESDAY (January 13, 2026)
US Consumer Price Index (CPI) (9.30 PM) – US CPI data is expected to be the main focus of the market. On an annual basis, overall inflation is expected to remain stable at 2.7%, reflecting price pressures that are still under control but have not fully returned to the Fed's target.
For the monthly reading, investors will be assessing whether there are any near-term price pressures, particularly from the services and housing sectors.
If the monthly core CPI shows a higher-than-expected increase, it could reinforce the view that inflation remains stubborn, thus supporting the strengthening of the USD and reducing expectations of a rate cut in the near term.
WEDNESDAY (January 14, 2026)
Producer Price Index (PPI) (9.30 PM) – The market will assess the core Producer Price Index (PPI), which is often considered an early indicator of inflationary pressures at the consumer level.
An increase in core PPI could signal that production costs are rising and could potentially be passed on to consumers in the coming period.
US Retail Sales Data (9.30 PM) – The US retail sales report is also of interest to assess the strength of consumer spending. A strong retail sales figure would confirm that US consumers are still spending actively, supporting economic growth and the strength of the USD.
However, a weak reading could raise concerns about the economic momentum, especially after the year-end holiday period.
THURSDAY (January 15, 2026)
Job Claims (9.30 PM) – Closing out the week, initial jobless claims are expected to rise to 210,000, up from 208,000 in the previous reading. While this increase is still considered small, it will be closely watched to assess whether there are early signs of easing in the labor market.
If jobless claims continue to show a consistent upward trend, it could put pressure on the USD in the medium term.
However, as long as the numbers remain low, the US labor market is still seen as stable and supports the Fed’s cautious stance on policy changes.
