The first week of 2026 after most financial institutions take a long break for Christmas and New Year, there are several important economic data that will be in focus to assess the state of the US economy at the beginning of the year.
MONDAY (January 5, 2026)
ISM Manufacturing PMI (11 PM) – This data assesses the level of activity in the manufacturing sector in the United States based on a survey of purchasing managers, covering new orders, production, employment and inventories.
A reading above 50 indicates economic expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction. Forecasts expect this reading to not move significantly from the current level of 48.2, which means the manufacturing sector is still in a contraction phase.
If this PMI rises to or above 50, it signals a recovery in the manufacturing sector and has the potential to strengthen the USD as the economy is seen to be healthier.
However, if the reading continues to fall lower, it would signal a prolonged economic slowdown and could put pressure on the USD as markets begin to anticipate looser monetary policy from the Fed.
WEDNESDAY (January 7, 2026)
ADP Non-Farm Report (9:15 PM) – The ADP data assesses private sector employment growth in the United States and is often used as an early indicator of the official Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report.
Forecasts call for this reading to rise, reflecting more stable hiring by the private sector. This increase is usually supported by persistent consumer spending and labor needs in the services sector.
If the ADP data rises, the USD could strengthen as the market sees a healthy labor market and a still resilient economy.
Conversely, if the reading falls sharply, it signals early labor market weakness and could weaken the USD as expectations of a Fed rate cut increase.
ISM Services PMI (11 PM) – This data assesses the performance of the US services sector, which includes activities such as retail, finance, logistics and hospitality, which is the largest sector in the US economy.
Expectations are modest but remain above the 50-point mark, indicating that the sector is still growing despite cost pressures and high interest rates.
If this PMI rises, it supports positive economic sentiment and tends to strengthen the USD. However, if the reading falls below 50, it provides an early warning that the economic slowdown is starting to spread to the services sector, thus putting pressure on the USD.)
JOLTS (11 PM) – JOLTS data assesses the number of job vacancies, hiring rates and layoffs in the US, thus providing an in-depth picture of the strength of the labor market.
Expectations show that the reading has not moved significantly as before, indicating that the labor market remains stable but not overheated.
If the number of job vacancies increases, it shows that labor demand is still high and could strengthen the USD as the Fed may remain cautious about easing policy.
Conversely, if the JOLTS declines, it signals that the labor market is cooling, increasing expectations of interest rate cuts and potentially weakening the USD.
FRIDAY (January 9, 2026)
Non-Farm Payroll Report (9:30 PM) – This data assesses the overall increase in employment in the US, excluding the agricultural sector, and is considered the most important indicator of the labor market.
Expectations are seen to remain positive but not as strong as the previous reading of around 64,000, reflecting a still expanding but moderating labor market.
If the NFP records a higher-than-expected figure, the USD has the potential to strengthen as the economy is still seen to be strong and pressure on the Fed to cut rates will decrease.
However, if the figure is lower or negative, it indicates a slowdown in the labor market and could weaken the USD as the market expects looser monetary policy.
US Unemployment Rate (9:30 PM) – This data assesses the percentage of the workforce that is unemployed but is still actively looking for work, and is an indicator of the overall health of the labor market.
Expectations are moderate and are expected to remain the same as the previous reading, indicating that the labor market is still stable. If the unemployment rate decreases, it reflects good employment conditions and supports the strengthening of the USD.
On the other hand, if this rate increases, it signals pressure in the labor market, increases the probability of an interest rate cut by the Fed and potentially weakens the USD.
