China's population recorded a decline for the fourth consecutive year in 2025 when the birth rate dropped to 7.92 million, a 17% drop from 9.54 million the previous year.
According to China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the birth rate was the lowest since official data began to be recorded in 1949.
The total population fell by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion, with the death rate increasing to 11.31 million compared to 10.93 million in 2024.
Demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Yi Fuxian explained that the birth rates in 2025 and 1738 are seen as almost the same, with China's population only around 150 million people.
Meanwhile, Beijing has long been trying to address the problem of the declining birth rate among its people.
This year, the Chinese government will allocate 90 billion yuan to subsidize childcare for children under three years old and expand health insurance to cover birth-related costs, including IVF treatment.
However, young people still find the cost of raising a child too expensive in a sluggish economy and high unemployment.
The estimated cost of raising a child to the age of 18 is 538,000 yuan, more than 6.3 times the country's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, far exceeding statistics in the United States (US) and Japan.
The legacy of the one-child policy, which was repealed in 2017, has also worsened the situation. The childbearing generation is shrinking and has become accustomed to living in small families as China's population ages rapidly.
At the same time, the death rate rose by 8.04 per 1,000 people in 2025, the highest since 1968.
People aged 60 and over now account for 23% of the total population and this figure is expected to jump to 400 million by 2035, almost equal to the combined populations of the US and Italy.
This situation means that the pension burden will become heavier, while the workforce is shrinking.
As a solution, China has raised the retirement age with men working until the age of 63 and women until the age of 58, compared to the previous 60 and 55.
In fact, the number of marriages fell by 20% in 2024 to 6.1 million couples, which is a bleak sign for the future of China's birth rate.
Although the number of Chinese people getting married increased by 22.5% in the third quarter of 2025, the full year's figures will determine whether this almost decade-long downward trend can be stopped.
Ultimately, government policies appear to have failed to address the increasingly worrying demographic reality.
China is now facing a major paradox: government incentives are unable to change the stance of the younger generation who prefer to live without children in a difficult economic situation.
