The economic data starting at the end of January is seen to be increasingly busy and dense as the market begins to pay serious attention to the release of employment data, inflation and consumer spending indicators.
This high-impact data series is important to assess whether the momentum of US economic growth remains stable or is starting to show signs of slowing.
So far, the combination of still strong labor data and gradually subsiding inflationary pressures gives the impression that the US economy is in a balanced phase, thus supporting the Fed's stance to remain cautious in determining the next interest rate direction.
MONDAY (January 26, 2026)
Durable Goods Orders (9.30 PM) – Durable goods orders data is among the early indicators of the health of the manufacturing sector and corporate capital spending in the United States. The previous report recorded a decrease of -2.2%, reflecting a temporary slowdown in demand for high-value goods such as machinery, vehicles and industrial equipment.
However, market analysts had expected the latest reading to jump to 5.4%, indicating a significant recovery in manufacturing activity.
If the data comes in below expectations, it could spark concerns that businesses are still cautious about spending, signaling a slowdown in US economic growth and potentially weakening sentiment towards the US dollar.
Conversely, if the data meets or approaches expectations of 5.4%, it would reinforce the narrative that the US economy remains resilient, supporting a steady growth outlook and providing positive support for the USD.
TUESDAY (January 27, 2026)
Consumer Confidence (11 PM) – The consumer confidence index is an important measure of Americans’ level of optimism about the economy, job market and future income.
The previous reading was at 89.1, while the latest expectation rose to 92.7, reflecting improved consumer sentiment.
If the new reading is lower than expected, it could signal that consumers are starting to feel pressured by the cost of living or economic uncertainty, potentially weighing on domestic spending and putting pressure on US economic growth and the USD.
However, if the data is in line with expectations or higher, it would show that consumers are still confident and willing to spend, a factor that supports economic growth and strengthens the position of the US dollar in the global market.
THURSDAY (January 29, 2026)
January FOMC Meeting (3 AM) – The highly anticipated report, the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, remains the main focus of the market. The previous interest rate was at 3.75% and most markets expect the Fed to keep rates at the same level.
The main focus is not only on the rate decision, but also the tone of the Fed's statement on the direction of monetary policy.
If the Fed gives a dovish tone or opens the way for a future rate cut, the USD has the potential to weaken due to lower expectations of returns.
On the other hand, if the Fed maintains a hawkish tone and insists on the need for higher rates for a longer period, it will support the strengthening of the USD as the market sees a firm stance on inflation.
US Trade Balance (9.30 PM) – Trade balance data shows the difference between US exports and imports. The previous report recorded a deficit of -$29.4 billion, while the latest expectation is for the deficit to narrow to -$23.0 billion.
If the deficit is larger than expected, it could put pressure on the USD as it indicates higher currency outflows.
However, if the deficit narrows in line with or better than expected, it reflects increased exports or reduced imports, thus providing positive support to the US economy and the US dollar.
FRIDAY (January 30, 2026)
PPI Inflation Report (9.30 PM) – The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures inflationary pressures at the producer level and is often a leading indicator of consumer inflation movements. The previous reading was at 3.0%, with market expectations pointing to a decline to 2.7%.
If the PPI is lower than expected, it signals that cost pressures are easing, raising expectations of looser monetary policy and potentially weakening the USD.
Conversely, if the PPI remains high or exceeds expectations, it will reinforce concerns that inflation is still ongoing, supporting the Fed's stance to remain tight and thus supporting a strengthening US dollar.
