Global markets closed last week with mixed reactions to key economic data that influence the direction of monetary policy of the world's major central banks.
Entering the new week, investors' attention is focused on several high-impact data from the United States (US), United Kingdom (UK) and Switzerland, which are expected to have a significant impact on the movement of major currencies and global financial market sentiment.
Here is a list of important economic data to watch throughout the week:
TUESDAY (10 February 2026)
US Retail Sales (9.30 PM) – US retail sales data measures the level of consumer spending, which is the main driver of the country's economic growth.
The market expects retail sales to increase at a moderate pace of around 0.4%, slightly down from the previous reading of 0.5%, indicating that consumer spending momentum is still stable but is starting to show signs of slowing.
If the data is lower than expected, it could reflect consumer caution due to the high cost of living and continued tight interest rates. This could potentially put pressure on US economic growth and weaken the USD.
Conversely, a stronger-than-expected reading could boost market confidence in the resilience of the US economy and support a strengthening USD.
WEDNESDAY (February 11, 2026)
Average Hourly Earnings (m/m) (9.30 PM) – This average hourly earnings data is an important indicator of inflationary pressures from a labor market perspective. The market expects it to remain stable at 0.3%, similar to the previous reading, indicating controlled wage growth.
If the data records a higher increase, it could potentially spark concerns about continued inflationary pressures, thus prompting expectations of tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This could strengthen the USD.
However, a lower reading could reduce inflationary pressures and weaken the currency.
Non-Farm Payrolls (ADP) (9:30 PM) – This data measures the increase in US private sector employment and is often used as an early indicator of the official NFP report. The market expects an increase of 70,000 jobs, higher than the previous reading of 50,000.
The increase reflects a still strong labor market, thus supporting US economic growth.
Better-than-expected data usually gives positive sentiment to the USD, while a weak reading can weigh on the currency due to concerns about slowing economic momentum.
US Unemployment Rate (9:30 PM) – The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.4%, the same as before. This figure indicates a still balanced labor market, without major pressures on the economy.
If the unemployment rate rises, it could reflect a slowdown in economic activity and put pressure on the USD. Conversely, a decrease in the unemployment rate has the potential to strengthen market confidence in the stability of the US economy and support the strengthening of the dollar.
THURSDAY (February 12, 2026)
United Kingdom (UK) GDP Report (3 PM) – UK economic growth data is expected to register a modest increase of 0.1%, lower than the previous reading of 0.3%, indicating slowing economic momentum.
This lower growth has the potential to weigh on the value of the British Pound (GBP), especially if concerns about an economic slowdown increase.
Spillover effects could also be felt on the USD through changes in global capital flows, depending on investors’ reaction to the stability of the UK economy.
US Jobless Claims (9.30 PM) – Weekly jobless claims are expected to fall to 222,000, lower than the previous reading of 231,000, indicating a still-firm labor market.
A decline in jobless claims is usually supportive of the USD as it reflects economic stability. However, a sharp increase in this figure could raise concerns about a US economic slowdown, further weighing on the dollar.
FRIDAY (13 February 2026)
Swiss CPI Data (3.30 PM) – Swiss inflation data is expected to remain stable at 0.0%, similar to the previous reading, indicating very low price pressures in the country’s economy.
This reading could potentially maintain loose monetary policy by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), thus putting pressure on the Swiss Franc (CHF). CHF movements could also influence global fund flows, especially in a cautious market environment.
US CPI Data (9.30 PM) – US inflation data is the focus this week, with the market expecting inflation to decline to 2.5% from 2.7% previously.
The decline signals that inflationary pressures are easing, opening up room for the Fed to consider looser monetary policy in the future.
If this data is lower than expected, the USD could potentially weaken on expectations of an interest rate cut. However, a higher reading could revive inflation concerns and strengthen the USD in the short term.
