Bitcoin price has once again surpassed the psychological level of $70,000 this week, but the upward momentum is not yet strong enough to convince professional traders that a major surge is imminent.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin price is currently at $70,285, down 0.05% since it opened early Thursday in Asian trading.
Over the past five weeks, Bitcoin has made several attempts to break through the $74,000 level, but each attempt ended in rejection, raising doubts among institutional investors.
The market situation is also influenced by geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, as well as less than encouraging American economic data.
This combination of factors has made investors more cautious despite the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.
In just two days, the Bitcoin ETF recorded an inflow of around $414 million, but that amount was still not enough to cover the outflow of $576 million that occurred a few days earlier.
Data from the derivatives market also shows a relatively cool sentiment.
Bitcoin options on the Deribit trading platform targeting a price of $78,000 by the end of March show a less than 17% probability of that scenario occurring.
This gives the impression that large traders and market makers are still not convinced of the potential price surge in the near future.
At the same time, the Bitcoin futures market also did not show a significant increase in demand for leveraged long positions.
The annual premium for futures contracts remains below the neutral level of 4%, although Bitcoin managed to jump around 16% in a four-day period earlier this month.
Despite the market sentiment being cautious, there are still factors that could potentially support the Bitcoin price.
Strategy, known as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, continues to increase its BTC holdings through funds raised from share issuance.
If institutional and ETF inflows continue to increase consistently, it could potentially be a catalyst for further price increases.
Bitcoin is likely to continue to move within its current price range until a new catalyst is strong enough to push the world's largest crypto asset past a key resistance level.
If momentum shifts back to the buyers' favor, a $78,000 target may not be impossible, but the odds still seem slim before the end of March.
