Hey crypto enthusiasts! Thanks for hopping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we’re diving into a hot topic: Bitcoin and its legendary four-year cycle. Despite what some voices on Twitter and YouTube are saying, the cycle is far from dead.
For months, a narrative has been floating around that the four-year cycle has “broken.” Why? Mostly because Bitcoin didn’t skyrocket as some expected or because altcoins didn’t rally. Here’s the thing: altcoins not performing is NOT proof that the cycle is broken. The data shows Bitcoin is following its historical patterns more closely than ever.
Let’s break it down. Previous market cycle tops happened in the fourth quarter (Q4) after election years:
Q4 2013
Q4 2017
Q4 2021
Q4 2025
Despite claims of a broken cycle, Bitcoin hit its highs exactly when it historically does. A quick look at ROI from market lows shows this cycle peaked on day 162 (October 2025), just days off from prior cycles. In short: the four-year cycle remains intact.
Some skeptics blame the cycle “breaking” on high expectations, not Bitcoin itself. Sure, things weren’t euphoric, but Bitcoin topped, entered a bear market, and moved just like it always does. Historical patterns confirm this:
Bitcoin often finds a low in February and rallies into March before settling into the bear market phase.
The current bear market is tracking prior cycles in ROI and price movement, even if it feels different to some traders.
Be cautious with claims that the bottom is in. Metrics like the MVRV Z-score, Bitcoin’s balance price, and the supply in profit/loss indicate that while a bottom could be forming, it’s not guaranteed yet. Premature “bottom calls” have been a recurring trend in midterm years.
Here’s the takeaway: the four-year cycle is alive and kicking. The market may look messy, but Bitcoin’s rhythm is still playing out. So while narratives and price predictions will always pop up, history is on Bitcoin’s side.
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