This week, the focus of global financial markets shifts from the labor sector to the US inflation and economic growth data series that will determine the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy for the remainder of the first half of 2026.
After last week's jobs data (NFP) gave a mixed picture, investors are now waiting for the consumer inflation (CPI) figure to confirm whether price pressures are truly easing or whether the risk of 'stubborn inflation' still haunts the market.
WEDNESDAY (March 11, 2026)
Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8.30 PM) – This is the most critical event of the week. Annual inflation (y/y) data is forecast to be stable at 2.4%, while monthly inflation (m/m) is expected to increase slightly by 0.2%.
If the CPI figure comes out higher than forecast (above 2.6%), it will spark speculation that the Federal Reserve will have to keep interest rates high for longer. This will strengthen the USD sharply and put strong selling pressure on the price of Gold.
However, if inflation shows a sudden drop below 2.2%, the market will start to ‘sell’ the USD as investors expect an interest rate cut to happen earlier than originally scheduled.
THURSDAY (March 12, 2026)
Weekly Jobless Claims (8.30 PM) – This data will be watched to see if there is a follow-up effect from last week’s NFP report. The current forecast is around 218,000 new claims.
Analysis Expectations: As long as this figure does not jump above the 240,000 level, the market will consider the labor sector to be in a “soft landing”. Any sharp increase in jobless claims will weaken USD sentiment as it signals an early recession is approaching.
Producer Price Index (PPI) (8.30 PM) – As a leading indicator of future consumer inflation, a higher-than-expected PPI data would support the narrative that production costs are still rising, lending further support to USD strength in the middle of the week.
FRIDAY (March 13, 2026)
Preliminary GDP (8.30 PM) – Markets are forecasting US economic growth of 2.1% this quarter.
If the GDP figure beats forecasts, it would prove that the US economy is still resilient despite high borrowing costs. This would push the USD index to a new high this week. Conversely, growth below 1.8% would trigger concerns of “stagnation”, which could lead to a decline in the USD and a rise in the price of safe-haven gold.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10.00 PM) – The week’s close will be determined by consumer confidence levels. Expectations are at 72.5.
This data is important because consumer spending is the lifeblood of the US economy. If consumer sentiment declines, it indicates that Americans are starting to 'tie the knot', which could put selling pressure on the USD at the close of the New York session.
