The conflict that began on February 28 is now entering a phase of desperate diplomacy. The 15-point plan revealed by The New York Times shows Washington’s deep desire to end Iran’s “stranglehold” on the Strait of Hormuz. With a focus on nuclear disarmament and IAEA monitoring, Trump is trying to end this war as a “negotiation victory” before its economic impact destabilizes world markets.
However, Tehran has responded with harsh rhetoric. The statement by the official IRIB media that asked the US not to call their defeat a deal shows the huge ego gap between the two sides. Without Ali Khamenei, the Iranian power structure now appears fragmented, making these negotiations seem like talks with “unknown parties,” thus increasing the risk of diplomatic failure.
The economic impact of this war is no longer just a projection, it is a harsh reality. The attack on the Kuwaiti airport and the interception of drones in Saudi Arabia prove that global energy infrastructure is now an open target. Iran’s move to impose an ad-hoc $2 million transit fee in the Strait of Hormuz is an unprecedented form of “economic blackmail.” This has indirectly forced the cost of living in Asia and the US to skyrocket.
On the allies’ side, Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now on the verge of direct war. Although Turkey is trying to prevent their involvement, Iran’s threats to power and water plants in the Gulf region could trigger a larger regional war. Israel’s continued airstrikes are also a “wildcard” factor that could cancel Trump’s 15-point peace plan in an instant.
Trump’s negotiating team, led by Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are working against the clock. Trump’s target of reaching an agreement by Friday seems very convincing. Even though Brent oil prices have fallen to $99, market volatility will peak again if Iran formally rejects the proposal or launches a more devastating retaliatory attack on the Gulf.
Overall, the fate of the global economy and security now depends on a piece of 15-point document. If Iran agrees to return to the negotiating table and give up its nuclear ambitions, the world may see a swift market recovery. However, if the “toll” in the Strait of Hormuz is maintained and drone attacks continue, it could be the beginning of a darker crisis for 2026.
