After the drama of last week's FOMC Meeting that saw the Federal Reserve (Fed) remain on a cautious note, investors' focus has now shifted entirely to the Fed's favorite inflation data.
This week will be decisive in whether the USD's strengthening momentum will continue or gold will once again drive the price higher based on American personal spending data.
TUESDAY (March 24, 2026)
CB Consumer Confidence (10:00 PM) – This data measures the level of household confidence in current and future economic activity. The market is expecting a figure around 106.5.
If the figure comes out more optimistic, it shows that the purchasing power of the US population is still strong. This gives the Fed reason not to rush to lower interest rates, thus strengthening the USD in the New York session.
Strong data usually pushes gold prices down because treasury yields tend to rise.
THURSDAY (March 26, 2026)
Final Quarterly GDP & Unemployment Claims (8:30 PM) – Two big data releases coming out simultaneously, providing a comprehensive picture of the health of the US economy.
If this final reading is revised upwards above 2.4%, it confirms the economic narrative is still resilient and will push the USD higher.
If claims come in below 210,000, it proves that the labor market is still ‘hot’. However, if they jump above 230,000, investors will start to worry about an economic slowdown, and gold may find demand as a safe haven.
FRIDAY (March 27, 2026)
Core PCE Price Index (8:30 PM) – The data that is in high focus this week. This is the leading inflation indicator used by the Fed to determine the direction of interest rates. The market is predicting a monthly increase of 0.3%.
If inflation comes out higher than expected, the market will consider inflation to be still ‘stubborn’. This will force the USD to soar and gold risks plunging below key support levels.
However, if the data shows a significant decline in inflation, it will spark speculation that the Fed will start cutting interest rates sooner and give hope to the yellow metal.
This week will be decisive, especially with the PCE data on Friday night in line with the Fed's hawkish tone last week, the USD will dominate the market until the end of the first quarter.
