After global markets were jolted by monetary policy uncertainty and commodity price movements, this week saw the focus return to a series of high-impact US economic data.
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From the services sector to consumer inflation, investors are now trying to assess whether the US economy is still strong enough to support a longer-term high interest rate stance, or is starting to show signs of slowing.
MONDAY (April 6, 2026)
ISM Services PMI (10:00 PM) – This data opens the week with a focus on the strength of the US services sector, which is the backbone of the country's economy. The current reading is expected to be around 54.9, but the latest estimate shows a potential increase to 56.8.
If this figure is indeed higher, it signals that economic activity is still growing strongly despite high interest rates. This will support the strengthening of the USD as the Fed does not appear to be under pressure to ease policy in the near future.
However, if the reading falls below 54, the market may start to question the current momentum of economic growth.
TUESDAY (April 7, 2026)
Durable Goods Orders (10:00 PM) – This data measures orders for durable goods and is a key indicator of business investment activity. The market expects a contraction of around -1.6%, a significant change from the previous reading.
Durable Goods Ex Transportation (10:00 PM) – This component is more stable as it does not take into account the volatile transportation sector. The expectation of around 0.6% indicates that there is still underlying demand in the economy.
If both data come out stronger than expected, it indicates that companies are still confident in spending and investing. This supports the narrative of a resilient economy and gives the USD an advantage.
Conversely, significant weakness will trigger concerns that the corporate sector is starting to slow down.
THURSDAY (April 9, 2026)
Personal Income (8:30 PM) – Personal income is expected to increase around 0.3%, indicating moderate growth in wages and other sources of income.
Personal Spending (8.30 PM) – Consumer spending is forecast to increase by 0.7%, higher than the previous month. This indicates that consumers are still actively spending despite continued pressure on the cost of living.
PCE Price Index (8.30 PM) – This is the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. The MoM reading is expected to be around 0.4% while the YoY is around 2.8%.
Core PCE (8.30 PM) – The core component that excludes food and energy is expected to increase to 0.4% (MoM) and 3.0% (YoY).
If this inflation data shows an increase that exceeds expectations, it puts pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates high for longer. The USD has the potential to strengthen while gold could be pressured.
However, if inflation shows consistent signs of decline, expectations of interest rate cuts will rise again, thus giving room for gold to rise.
FRIDAY (April 10, 2026)
CPI – Consumer Price Index (8.30 PM) – This key inflation data is expected to record an increase of 1.0% monthly and 3.4% annually.
Core CPI (8.30 PM) – This core inflation is more ‘clean’ because it does not take into account food and energy prices that often fluctuate dramatically.
Readings around 0.3% (MoM) and 2.7% (YoY) show that price pressures still exist, but are under control. This is important because the Fed pays more attention to the Core CPI to assess whether inflation is truly easing or still ‘stubborn’.
If this number suddenly jumps, it signals that price pressures are coming from real demand in the economy and could cause the Fed to continue to insist on high interest rates for longer.
CPI Index NSA (8.30 PM) – This figure of 330.698 refers to the overall level of the consumer price index without seasonal adjustments. Simply put, it shows the current price level in the US economy compared to the base year.
When this number is rising, it means that the overall cost of living continues to rise. While investors are not too focused on this absolute number, its movement is still important to see the long-term trend of inflation.
If this index rises faster than expected, it reinforces the narrative that price pressures have not yet fully subsided.
Factory Orders (10.00 PM) – This data is expected to return to positive territory by around 0.2% after the previous contraction, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing sector.
If the CPI comes out higher than expected, the market will see this as a threat to efforts to bring down inflation. This will strengthen the USD and put more pressure on gold.
Conversely, a lower inflation reading will open the door for more accommodative policy changes, weakening the USD and increasing demand for safe-haven assets.
The focus this week is on the combination of inflation and consumer strength that will determine the direction of the market. If both remain strong, the ‘higher for longer’ narrative will continue to dominate.
However, any sign of weakness in inflation or spending could trigger a major change in sentiment in global markets.
