Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to rise, with the focus now shifting to another strategic global route, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
A senior Iranian official, Ali Akbar Velayati, warned that the strait could potentially be a target if the United States takes military action. This statement reflects the risk of a wider conflict, no longer focused on just one area.
The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is a narrow passage that connects the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea before connecting to the Suez Canal. It is a major gateway for trade between Europe and Asia and plays an important role in global oil flows.
With a width of about 20 miles at its narrowest point, this passage is located between Yemen and Djibouti. Its location makes it one of the most critical chokepoints in the world's supply chain, especially for energy shipments.
Iran's warning comes as the risks in the Strait of Hormuz have not yet subsided. Ali Akbar Velayati, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said that the importance of Bab al-Mandeb is now seen as equal to Hormuz in terms of geopolitical pressure.
He also signaled that any action by the United States could cause major disruptions to global energy flows and trade, heightening market concerns about supply chain risks.
From a fundamental perspective, the importance of Bab al-Mandeb is significant. Around 4.1 million barrels of oil pass through this route every day, making it one of the main routes for energy exports to Europe.
Although this volume is lower than Hormuz, disruptions here still have a major impact because it connects directly to Western markets.
In addition, the route also supports the flow of oil from Saudi Arabia via pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea before being shipped to global markets. This makes Bab al-Mandeb a key component of the world’s energy logistics system.
From a trade perspective, around 12 percent of global trade passes through this route, mainly ships using the Suez Canal as the main route between Asia and Europe. Any disruption would force ships to turn around Africa, increasing costs and shipping times.
Although Iran does not have a direct coastline on the Bab al-Mandeb, its influence remains significant through its relationship with the Houthi group in Yemen.
The group has demonstrated its ability to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea through attacks on ships linked to Israel since 2023.
Recent developments show that the group continues to increase its offensive capabilities, including the use of missiles against military targets. This makes the risk of disruption in the Bab al-Mandeb not just a theoretical threat, but something based on real capabilities on the ground.
The warning also comes shortly after US President Donald Trump again threatened military action against Iran if the Strait of Hormuz issue is not resolved.
Markets are now facing a layered risk involving two major global routes. If pressure continues to rise, disruptions in the Bab al-Mandeb have the potential to further restrict global oil and trade routes, increasing volatility in energy and financial markets.
