Global oil prices fell after signs emerged that Iran may join talks with the United States in Islamabad, as efforts toward a ceasefire continue. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude fell about 2.2 percent to around US$86 a barrel for June delivery, while Brent showed mixed results, rising above US$95 a barrel earlier in the week.
According to sources close to the talks, Iran is expected to send a delegation to Pakistan, although Tehran has previously been seen as cautious about continuing dialogue with Washington. US Vice President JD Vance is reported to be involved in efforts to resume talks in the near future. Donald Trump also hinted that the ceasefire may not last long, with the current period expected to end Washington time.
The current movement in oil prices is largely influenced by uncertain market sentiment, especially regarding the strategic Strait of Hormuz route. This route is the main artery of global oil shipments, and any disruption will continue to have a major impact on world supplies. The ongoing tensions in the region, including issues involving Iran, the United States and other regional conflicts, continue to put pressure on energy markets.
Analysts see the market as currently in a reactive state, with every political statement having an immediate impact on prices. While there is hope that peace talks could ease supply disruptions, conflicting statements from stakeholders have created confusion and increased price volatility in the short term.
At the same time, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have reportedly not fully recovered. Citigroup warned that oil prices could potentially surge to US$110 per barrel if disruptions continue over the next month. The gap between political statements and reality on the ground shows that the global energy market is currently in a phase of high uncertainty.
Overall, the direction of oil prices in the near term will continue to depend on the development of geopolitical negotiations and the stability of key supply routes. As long as the risk of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz has not been resolved, the market is expected to remain sensitive to any new developments.
