Crude oil prices fell again after a sharp spike in the previous session as investors reassessed the risk of supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.
Brent crude futures for July delivery fell 0.18 to $111.76 a barrel on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 0.45% to $105.72 a barrel.
The decline came after both benchmarks recorded strong gains on Monday, with Brent jumping nearly 6% and WTI around 4%.
Geopolitical tensions have again escalated as an unofficial ceasefire between Washington and Tehran appears to be increasingly fragile.
Drone and missile attacks on the United Arab Emirates linked to Iran, as well as the US sinking of an Iranian ship in the Strait of Hormuz, have raised concerns about the security of global oil trade routes.
US President Donald Trump has issued a stern warning against any threat to American ships that patrol commercial routes in the strategic strait. The statement added to market uncertainty as the risk of open conflict increases.
Meanwhile, a report from Goldman Sachs showed that global oil inventories are not yet at critical levels, but the rate of stock depletion and uneven distribution between regions are starting to raise concerns about local supply shortages.
The investment bank stressed that buffers for easily accessible petroleum products are rapidly dwindling, especially in raw material segments such as naphtha, LPG and jet fuel. This situation is putting additional pressure on the global energy supply chain.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth also warned that the issue of fuel shortages is now a real risk in several regions, especially if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue.
This situation not only affects prices, but also has the potential to affect supply availability in the near term.
Overall, global oil stocks are estimated at around 101 days of demand at the moment and are expected to shrink to 98 days by the end of May. Although still above emergency levels, this figure is seen as masking the true reality of more significant shortages in certain regions.
According to Goldman Sachs analysis, the risk of petroleum product shortages is expected to be higher in countries such as South Africa, India, Thailand and Taiwan, especially in the face of export restrictions and logistical disruptions that limit supply flows.
Oil price movements currently remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, with the market facing high volatility between the risk of supply disruptions and dwindling global inventory levels.
