Southeast Asian countries face a higher risk of experiencing severe haze episodes this year due to the El Niño phenomenon which is expected to bring hotter and drier weather.
According to a report issued by the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA), the severe haze risk level has been raised to the high category, which is the highest category in their rating system.
The riskiest period is expected to occur between August and September, involving countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and Brunei.
The El Niño phenomenon occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above normal levels.
This situation can cause reduced rainfall and increased temperatures in many parts of Southeast Asia.
In addition, the impact of El Niño is expected to be stronger when combined with the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, a climate phenomenon that also contributes to dry weather and drought risk in the region.
According to SIIA, the weather in the rest of 2026 has the potential to be one of the hottest dry seasons on record. This situation increases the risk of forest and peatland fires that are difficult to control.
The fires are often the main cause of transboundary haze that affects air quality in several neighboring countries.
Southeast Asia is indeed plagued by haze almost every year. Fires often occur when land is burned to clear land for agriculture, including palm oil plantations.
In 2015, the region experienced one of the worst haze crises in history when massive fires in Indonesia caused school closures, flight disruptions and the cancellation of various outdoor activities in neighboring countries.
The report also noted that rising fertilizer and energy prices due to the Iran conflict could increase cost pressures on the agricultural sector.
This situation risks pushing some operators to use cheaper open burning methods to clear land. At the same time, government budget constraints could also affect fire prevention efforts.
Current weather indicators show that many parts of Indonesia and Malaysia are likely to receive less than normal rainfall until October.
In fact, the number of fire hotspots in key palm oil production areas has risen to a seven-year high, raising concerns that the region could face another major haze episode this year.
