US President Donald Trump shocked global markets on Wednesday after claiming that Iran had agreed in principle not to have nuclear weapons. However, in an interview with the podcast “Pod Force One”, Trump warned that Tehran still has room to change its mind and indirectly kept the status of peace talks in a very fragile state.
Trump’s admission came as the armed conflict between the two countries approached its 100th day without any concrete solution to turn a temporary ceasefire into a permanent peace plan. The Iranian Foreign Ministry chose to take a tight-lipped approach and refused to provide any official comment on the latest White House allegations.
Despite local Iranian media reports claiming that Tehran had cut off all channels of communication with the US, Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that secret talks were in fact still ongoing. Rubio stated before the Senate that Iran was now ready to discuss aspects of its nuclear program that had previously been considered a non-negotiable red line.
A series of conflicting messages has continued to be the main strategy of both sides throughout this crisis, making it difficult for analysts to predict the true direction of Persian Gulf geopolitics. Market risks have risen again after Tehran’s allied news agency threatened to completely close the Strait of Hormuz in response to alleged ceasefire violations by US-Israeli forces.
The financial market reaction saw global crude oil prices climb back up, although they remain below the psychological level of $100 a barrel. Trump expressed confidence that the maritime blockade crisis would be resolved “fairly quickly” and predicted that the Strait of Hormuz would most likely reopen to commercial tanker traffic by Labor Day in September.
