The global maritime sector and energy commodity markets are at risk of total paralysis following President Donald Trump’s surprise announcement to impose a 20% security levy on all cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The controversial move, announced amid a planned interim ceasefire in June, was shattered after US forces and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched a series of armed attacks on each other for a third consecutive day on Tuesday.
Under this radical foreign policy restructuring, Trump declared the United States the “Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz” and demanded commercial compensation to cover the cost of CENTCOM’s military cleanup operation. The unilateral declaration was met with fierce opposition from shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd, which labeled the tolls in international waters a fundamental violation of maritime law that had no infrastructure capital backing.
The World’s Largest Shipping Association (BIMCO) has warned that the 20% fee will act as a very strong macro disincentive that will immediately extinguish the remaining tanker traffic in the strait. Maritime tracking data from Kpler reveals the grim reality that the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted from a weekly average of 37 ships to just 14 ships (including just four WTI crude oil tankers) on Sunday.
This drastic change in Washington’s diplomatic style has surprised financial market analysts as it completely contradicts the official US Treasury stance. In late May, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of aggressive economic sanctions on Oman to prevent any attempt by Iran to build a toll system. Energy analysts have warned that Trump’s attempt to collect this war tax risks dragging Brent crude prices back above the $77 support level, thus re-igniting inflation.
