Gold prices (XAU/USD) continued to perform strongly when trading around USD4,281.72 as of 2:30 PM (MYT), thus recording the highest level in several weeks.
However, the biggest question today is whether this rise can continue or will it end with profit-taking activities?
The answer will be determined tonight when the market focuses fully on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report at 8:30 PM (MYT). As the most important economic data each month, the NFP results are expected to be the main catalyst that determines the direction of the US Dollar, Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations, and subsequently the movement of gold prices.
NFP Now the Next Determinant for Fed Policy
After several series of economic data showed that the momentum of American growth has begun to moderate, market attention has now shifted entirely to the US jobs report.
The Fed has yet to give a clear signal on its next monetary policy move. Therefore, any indication from the labor market is now becoming increasingly important in determining whether the central bank has room to keep interest rates high for longer or to start considering easing.
If the NFP report shows strong job growth, the market is expected to return to supporting the US Dollar as the Fed is seen to still have room to maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts.
On the other hand, if the data disappoints, expectations of a more dovish Fed policy are expected to increase and this usually benefits gold prices.
Geopolitics Still a Catalyst for Gold
In addition to economic data, the market is also monitoring geopolitical developments that continue to influence sentiment towards safe assets.
Despite positive developments regarding diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, uncertainties regarding the security of trade routes and the risk of regional conflict still cause investors to maintain some of their holdings in gold.
At the same time, sentiment that global inflationary pressures could continue to subside if energy supplies stabilize also put pressure on the US Dollar and US Treasury yields. This combination of factors helps gold maintain its upward momentum ahead of the NFP report.
However, geopolitical impact is expected to be a secondary factor today as market attention is almost entirely focused on US jobs data.
Why is NFP so important?
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) measures the number of new jobs created in the US outside of the agricultural sector and is considered the most important indicator of the health of the country's economy.
The report is released alongside several other data such as the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings, which also influence inflation expectations and Fed policy.
If NFP is higher than expected:
The US Dollar is expected to strengthen.
US Treasury bond yields could potentially rise.
Gold prices are at risk of a correction.
If NFP is lower than expected:
The US Dollar is expected to weaken.
Expectations of a Fed rate cut are increasing.
Gold could potentially continue to rise.
Today's Key Catalysts
Time (MYT) Data Impact
8:30 PM Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) ⭐⭐⭐
8:30 PM Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) ⭐⭐⭐
8:30 PM Nonfarm Payrolls (July) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
8:30 PM Unemployment Rate ⭐⭐⭐⭐
8:30 PM Labor Force Participation Rate ⭐⭐
8:30 PM Average Weekly Hours ⭐⭐
10:00 PM Ivey PMI (Canada) ⭐⭐
Technical Analysis XAU/USD
Based on the Daily chart, gold prices have managed to continue their upward momentum after breaking through the resistance zone around USD4,250.
The market structure still shows the formation of Higher High (HH) and Higher Low (HL), indicating that buyers are still in control of the market.
However, prices are now approaching psychological resistance areas that have the potential to trigger profit taking activities, especially if the NFP report supports the strengthening of the US Dollar.
Current Price
USD4,281.72 (2:30 PM MYT)
Important Technical Levels
Resistance
R1: USD4,300
R2: USD4,330
R3: USD4,350
Support
Q1: USD4,250
Q2: USD4,220
Q3: USD4,180
