Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi see a low chance that the landmark legislation that will set the regulatory framework for crypto assets in the United States (US) will be passed before the end of this year.
According to the Kalshi market, the probability of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becoming law before the end of 2026 is currently below 25%.
Clarity Act to Define Crypto Regulation
The Clarity Act aims to create a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets, specifically in defining the jurisdictions between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The bill passed the US House of Representatives with bipartisan support in July 2025.
It is now scheduled to undergo a procedural vote in the Senate on September 15.
If passed, the law has the potential to provide more certainty to the crypto industry regarding assets that are under the supervision of the SEC or CFTC.
Trump Presses Congress, But Markets Remain Cautious
President Donald Trump has previously urged Congress to pass a fair version of the Clarity Act.
Pressure from the Trump administration has also helped boost sentiment in the crypto market.
Bitcoin, for example, has surged more than 20% in a week, with hopes of more crypto-friendly policies being among the catalysts for the rise.
However, Kalshi traders still see a low chance of the law being passed this year.
They also put a less than 50% probability that the Clarity Act can be implemented by April 2027.
CFTC Ready to Take Action If Act Stuck
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said the agency could use its existing powers to shape the framework for the crypto asset market if the Clarity Act fails to move in the Senate.
The situation shows that pressure on Congress is increasing as the crypto industry awaits regulatory clarity.
If the Clarity Act is successfully passed, the market has the potential to gain greater regulatory certainty and thus support the entry of more institutions into the crypto sector.
On the other hand, the failure of the bill could potentially perpetuate uncertainty about the jurisdiction of the SEC and CFTC.
For crypto markets, developments in the Senate on September 15 will be among the main things investors are watching as any progress or delay could impact sentiment towards Bitcoin and other digital assets.
