After the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained interest rates at its meeting last week, the market's focus has now shifted entirely to the strength of the United States (US) economy, especially the labor market.
This week is expected to be one of the most important weeks as several high-impact data will determine whether the Fed still has reason to maintain a tight stance on interest rates or begin to make room for looser policies at the next meeting.
In addition to employment data, investors are also paying attention to manufacturing and service sector activity to assess whether the US economy is still growing despite remaining high interest rates.
MONDAY (August 3, 2026)
ISM Manufacturing PMI (10.00 PM) – The first data to watch this week. It measures the level of manufacturing sector activity in the United States.
If the reading exceeds expectations and remains above the 50 level, it indicates that the manufacturing sector is still expanding. The result has the potential to support the strengthening of the USD and increase US bond yields.
Conversely, a weaker reading would reinforce concerns that the economy is slowing, putting pressure on the USD and supporting safe-haven assets like gold.
TUESDAY (August 4, 2026)
JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 PM) – This data shows the number of job openings offered by employers in the United States.
A high number of job openings indicates that labor demand is still strong and signals that wage pressures and inflation are still likely to persist.
However, if the number of job openings declines significantly, the market may expect the Fed to take a more cautious approach to monetary policy.
WEDNESDAY (August 5, 2026)
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (8:15 PM) – This report is an early indicator of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data to be published on Friday.
A strong reading usually increases confidence that the US labor market is still in good shape.
ISM Services PMI (10:00 PM) – The services sector contributes a large portion of the US economy. As such, this data often has a large impact on USD movements.
If both ADP and ISM Services data are positive, market sentiment could favor the US dollar by the end of the week.
THURSDAY (August 6, 2026)
Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 PM) – This weekly data will be watched to see if the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits starts to increase.
If claims remain low, it indicates that the labor market is still strong. Conversely, a sharp increase could signal that economic momentum is slowing.
FRIDAY (August 7, 2026)
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate & Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 PM) – This is the most important event of the week.
The NFP report for July will determine whether the US economy is still able to create jobs at a healthy pace.
If new jobs exceed expectations and the unemployment rate remains low, the USD is expected to strengthen as the market sees the Fed still has room to keep interest rates high for a while longer.
On the other hand, disappointing jobs data could increase expectations that the Fed will take a more dovish approach at the upcoming meeting. This could potentially weaken the USD and provide support to gold and risk assets.
