The cryptocurrency market is showing early signs of forming a local bottom near the psychological $80,000 level, driven by a wave of selling among retail investors. On-chain analytics firm Santiment revealed that the number of Bitcoin wallets with active balances has declined by 30,000 since October 16, bringing the total count to approximately 59.95 million. Santiment analysts point out that the exit of smaller-scale holders—frustrated by the market’s sideways movement—often serves as a catalyst for building a much stronger price foundation, compared to the fragile nature of speculative, price-chasing rallies.
To confirm this technical reversal structure, Bitcoin must defend the $80,000 support level and break back above the immediate resistance at $82,500. Prominent crypto market analyst "Doctor Profit" suggests that the current downturn is merely a periodic correction rather than the onset of a new bear market. According to him, the $80,000–$81,500 range acts as a critical zone, as it aligns with the cost basis for spot ETFs and corporate treasury holdings; meanwhile, long-term holders who accumulated assets in the $60,000–$70,000 range remain unwilling to part with their positions. Despite these optimistic projections, downside risks continue to loom over the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2026. Technical analyst Ali Martinez highlights historical cyclical data showing that Bitcoin has consistently underperformed during the final quarter of years coinciding with U.S. midterm elections. Data indicates that BTC fell by 16.7% in 2014, plummeted by 42.16% in 2018, and declined by 14.75% in 2022. Should this politically-linked seasonal pattern repeat as the November 3rd election approaches, Bitcoin’s price faces the risk of a sharper decline—potentially falling well below the $79,000 threshold before the year concludes.
On Wall Street, market liquidity remains highly volatile, even though U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw a net inflow of $110.34 million during Monday’s opening session. This positive daily figure, however, is insufficient to bridge the monthly liquidity gap; cumulatively, these ETFs have recorded net outflows exceeding $200 million for the month of October, driven by investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting and regional geopolitical tensions.
Meanwhile, among corporate buyers, there is a notable divergence in treasury strategies. Michael Saylor’s company, MicroStrategy, has opted to pause its Bitcoin purchases, choosing instead to allocate capital toward a share buyback program. In contrast, wealth management firm Strive launched an aggressive buying spree, snapping up 6,182 BTC—valued at $511.4 million—to boost its total reserves to 43,000 BTC, while Smarter Web Company also added 20 BTC, bringing its treasury holdings to 2,850 BTC.
