The GBP/USD pair broke through the important resistance area of 1.3160-1.3184 and continued to move up on Tuesday, November 10. By the end of the trading day, the pair reached the resistance level of 1.3266 and could not overcome it. The rising trend line continues to support bull traders, so they retain their dominance in the forex market. Oddly enough, the fundamental background is such that it should contribute more to the pound's decline, and not for it to strengthen. Nevertheless, buyers are currently in the game and need to overcome the 1.3266 level in order to continue moving up. Sellers need to wait until the price settles below the 1.3160 -1.3184 area in order for it to move to the trend line. Breaking the trend line will allow us to expect a new downward trend.
The linear regression channels are directed to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe, which indicates that there are no signs of starting a downward movement. Therefore, the lower timeframe does not provide any reason to conclude that the upward movement is over. However, buyers need to overcome the 1.3266 level today, otherwise, a stronger correction will begin.
The GBP/USD pair only lost 100 points during the last reporting week (October 27-November 2). The pound began to rise after November 2. And it wasn't so much of a rise, but more like the dollar's fall. However, let's go back to the reporting period. Non-commercial traders closed 3,281 Buy-contracts (longs) and opened 1,146 Sell-contracts (shorts). Thus, the net position for the "non-commercial" group of traders decreased by 4,500. This is much more clearly visible on the chart of the first indicator. The green and red lines, which represent the net positions of the two most important groups of traders, began to diverge in different directions. Therefore, the mood of professional traders is becoming more bearish again. However, this change did not result in the pound's decline. Because elections were already held in the United States on November 3 and the dollar was only getting cheaper then. Therefore, the new Commitment of Traders (COT) report may show that the bearish mood is weakening among professional traders. However, in any case, we believe that the markets need to calm down and only after that will it be possible to look at all the information in a new way. It is now clear that market participants are in a very agitated state due to the political chaos that is now present in the United States. Therefore, the mood of large traders can change quickly and dramatically.
The fundamental background on Tuesday was associated with the British currency. The UK published a report on the unemployment rate, which rose from 4.5% to 4.8% in September. The number of applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 29,800 (forecast +36,000). The average salary with and without premiums rose more than experts predicted. In addition, the House of Lords of the British Parliament refused to vote "for" the resonant Johnson bill, which directly violates the Brexit deal with the European Union. Thus, for the time being, the conflict with the EU is put on hold, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson is not going to give up and will continue to push through this law. We believe that this bill is needed to put pressure on the European Union in order for them to be more accommodating in negotiations. However, Johnson's bluff (or blackmail) is visible to absolutely everyone. And the EU is ready to launch a judicial procedure if the bill is adopted.
The UK is scheduled to release its NIESR GDP growth estimate on Wednesday. According to forecasts, GDP may grow by 20.1% in October. Any value much higher than the forecast could once again support the British pound. There are no major publications or speeches scheduled in the US. We continue to believe that, in general, the pound has already risen too much in price against the dollar. However, so far there are no technical signals and no technical confirmation of the hypothesis about the imminent start of the pair's downward movement. Thus, it is clearly too early to open short positions.
We have two trading ideas for November 11:
1) Buyers for the pound/dollar pair are still unable to overcome the resistance level of 1.3266, which prevents them from moving up. However, they do not go far from this level and will continue to test it for strength. Thus, we recommend buying the pair if this level is overcome while aiming for the next resistance level of 1.3382. Take Profit, in this case, will be up to 90 points.
2) Sellers do not currently own the initiative in the market. If the price settles below the 1.3160-1.3184 area, you can try to sell the pound/dollar pair while aiming for the Kijun-sen line (1.3103) in small lots, as the trend continues to rise above the trend line. Take Profit, in this case, can be up to 30 points. You can confidently open short positions after breaking the trend line while aiming for the support area of 1.3004-1.3024 and the support level of 1.2943. Take Profit, in this case, will be from 50 to 100 points.
