Is This a Bad Sign for an NFP Report?

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 While market focus remains on the process of counting presidential election votes in several key states, the U.S. Department of Labor will publish an NFP employment report tonight.


The market expects job growth in October to be slower than in previous months following the Covid-19 case which is still showing improvement in the United States.


The US economy is expected to make only a small increase in employment of 600,000 jobs, following an increase of 661,000 in September. Meanwhile, the US unemployment rate is forecast to decline from 7.9% to 7.7%.


Some employment-related data published this month as a whole show improved growth and positive results. However, it can be seen that the employment sector is growing more slowly compared to previous months.


This can be seen from the ADP employment data published on Wednesday showing employment in the US private sector only increased by 365,000 in October from an increase of 753,000 recorded in September.



In addition, the non-manufacturing PMI employment component of ISM was seen to drop to 50.1 from 51.8 last month, indicating that employment growth in the services sector is still low.


This situation is in contrast to the ISM manufacturing PMI employment component data which showed an increase to 53.2 from 49.6 in the previous month.


Meanwhile, the total unemployment claim last week dropped slightly to 751,000 from 758,000 last week. This brings the average unemployment claim for 4 weeks down to 787,000 from a reading of 838,000 last month.

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