It's no secret that bitcoin has completed its bullish trend and is now in correction and consolidation, which in total may take at least a year or two. Therefore, crypto experts around the world currently estimate not the probability of bitcoin's growth in 2021, but the probability of its fall. Various factors are being studied, and one of these factors is the actions of early investors. According to various estimates, about 20% of the 18 million bitcoin coins already mined are "inactive". This means that these coins have been on wallets without movement for more than five years. Therefore, no one knows what their owners are going to do with these coins. It is possible that access to most of these wallets has long been lost. Perhaps they are owned by early investors who bought coins back when they were worth $5-10. Thus, when movements begin on such wallets, it shocks many crypto experts. The fact is that with such wallets, owners can only sell their coins. That is why they can be identified as "inactive". And if the sale of "inactive" coins begins, this leads us to the conclusion that long-term investors no longer believe in the further growth of the bitcoin exchange rate and try to get rid of it at the current rate. Naturally, any major sale causes a new drop in the quotes of bitcoin, which is already on the edge of the abyss. Thus, the future of bitcoin will partly depend on these 20% of "inactive" coins.Thus, we get the overall picture.
The fundamental background for the main cryptocurrency remains sharply negative. Early investors are more inclined to sell their coins. The number of coins on the wallets of bitcoin whales is growing (which indicates new purchases from large investors), but does the demand exceed the supply? Only in this case, bitcoin can start growing again. And since bitcoin has been declining recently, the conclusion suggests the opposite. Also, Guggenheim Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd believes that the main cryptocurrency is in the midst of its next collapse. In his opinion, bitcoin will not be able to avoid another fall by 70-80%, which means a price of 10-15 thousand dollars per coin. "Put it this way, I wouldn't be in a hurry to buy Bitcoin and I don't see any reason to own it right now," Minerd said.
Technically, on the 4-hour timeframe, bitcoin quotes were fixed below the ascending trend line, as well as below the Ichimoku cloud. Therefore, in the short term, we expect a new drop in bitcoin quotes to the levels of $31,100 and $29,700, which are key for bitcoin. The further fall of the cryptocurrency will depend entirely on the market's ability to keep the rate above these levels.
