Traders are in for busy trading sessions ahead with the U.S. retail sales and FOMC meeting minutes on tap.
Will these catalysts bust EUR/USD from its short-term downtrend?
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out AUD/USD’s trend line support after the RBA printed its latest meeting minutes. Be sure to check out if it’s still a valid play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
U.S. producer prices jump by 1.0% in Jan vs. 0.5% expected, 0.4% in Dec
Canadian Real Estate Association: national average selling price up by 4.9% and hit new record highs even as listings plunged aid snowy weather in Jan
NY manufacturing index up from -0.7 to 3.1 in Feb but below the expected 12 reading
NZ Global Dairy Trade price index reached 1,516, just shy of the all-time record of 1,573 set in April 2013
AU Westpac-MI Leading Index improved from -0.1 to +0.4 in Jan, says above-trend growth over the next 3-9 months likely
China’s PPI up by 9.1% in Jan, the weakest pace since July 2021
China’s CPI shows 0.9% growth from a year ago in Jan vs. 1.5% December uptick and expected 1.0% increase
UK inflation jumped to a 30-year high of 5.5% in Jan, putting pressure on the BOE
Biden says Ukraine invasion still ‘possible’ despite Russian claims of troop withdrawal
U.K. has not seen evidence of Russian withdrawal from Ukraine’s border – defense minister
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Economic Calendar:
Canada’s CPI report at 1:30 pm GMT
U.S. retail sales at 1:30 pm GMT
U.S. industrial production at 1:30 pm GMT
U.S. NAHB housing index at 3:00 pm GMT
U.S. FOMC meeting minutes at 7:00 pm GMT
Japan’s trade balance at 11:50 pm GMT
Australia’s jobs report at 12:30 am GMT (Feb 17)
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️
What to Watch: EUR/USD
Talks of Russia withdrawing some of its troops on Ukraine’s border eased geopolitical concerns and helped the euro gain ground against the dollar.
Can the bulls maintain their momentum today?
Uncle Sam will publish its retail sales data and later today we’ll see the FOMC publish its latest meeting minutes. We know from Powell’s last announcement that Fed members are talking interest rate hikes, enough for some traders to believe that we’ll see one as soon as March.
If today’s reports confirm a March rate hike, or if we see hints that the Fed will raise rates by more than 25 basis points, then EUR/USD could go back to its downtrend.
Sustained trading below the trend line resistance and the 100 SMA could lead to a dip back to the 1.1300 zone.
But EUR/USD has already broken above the 100 SMA as well as a trend line resistance that’s been holding since the start of the month.
If the FOMC meeting minutes fails to reveal something new, or if more traders price in easing tensions in the European region, then EUR/USD could extend its intraweek uptrend.
