The US unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3% in September, according to a new metric published by the Chicago Fed. The estimate is in focus as the official jobs report is expected to be delayed due to the government shutdown.
The new Chicago Fed metric uses a combination of official data and alternative sources such as Indeed and Google, and is published twice a month. It is intended to give policymakers an early look, although it does not replace the official BLS data.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that while the BLS figures are the best benchmark, the absence of official reports forces the central bank to use alternative estimates. He described the lack of data as a major challenge for policymaking.
The Fed previously cut interest rates in September by a quarter point, as an insurance measure against labor market weakness that is seen as possible and could happen suddenly. The latest estimate shows no sign of a drastic deterioration for now.
The labor market recorded a slight decline in the hiring rate and a slight increase in layoffs, but the movement was not large. Financial markets, meanwhile, remain hopeful for two more rate cuts in October and December.
