Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate as the United States and China are seen to be increasing their military engagement regarding the situation in Iran, following the increasingly serious internal unrest and the risk of a regional conflict that is widening.
The Pentagon is reportedly moving a carrier strike group from the South China Sea to the US Central Command area of responsibility, which includes the Middle East.
The move involves the USS Abraham Lincoln along with several support ships including attack submarines, and is expected to take about a week to arrive in the area of operations.
The military move comes as Washington faces a dilemma over whether to provide open support to Iranian protesters challenging the ruling regime.
Several US military personnel at a major base in Qatar have also been advised to evacuate, while the United Kingdom has issued a travel warning for Israel, reflecting the increasing level of security risk in the region.
In a related development, Iran issued a Notice to Air Mission (NOTAM) restricting flights in and out of Tehran, a clear indication of concerns over security threats and the possibility of escalating the conflict.
The internal situation in Iran has remained tense since late December due to a prolonged economic crisis. Rights groups say more than 2,500 people have been killed in a series of widespread protests, increasing international pressure on Tehran's leadership.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled support for Iranian protesters, but has also claimed that the Iranian government is easing its crackdown to open up space for talks with Washington.
The statement was met with stern warnings from Iranian state media, which has signaled a military response in the event of foreign interference.
Amid the tensions, Iran has also accelerated its military modernization efforts by strengthening defense ties with China. Tehran is reportedly interested in acquiring Chengdu J-10C fighter jets to replace an aging air fleet that still relies on pre-1979 American-made aircraft and several Russian assets whose deliveries have been delayed.
Interest in the J-10C has increased after a 12-day conflict with Israel in 2025, which exposed the weaknesses of Iran's air defenses and reduced the country's missile stockpile.
The J-10C is seen as a strategic alternative following significant delays in deliveries of Russia’s Su-35 jets, which have been affected by the Ukraine war and Moscow’s production constraints.
In addition to the fighter jets, Iran has also been linked to negotiations to acquire Chinese air defense systems such as the HQ-9, missile components, and an air early warning system to enhance threat detection capabilities. Although no formal agreement has been announced, this approach reflects Iran’s “Look East” policy of circumventing Western sanctions and rebuilding its military strength.
China, for its part, has taken a cautious approach. Beijing has expressed its willingness to cooperate within a long-term strategic framework, but remains mindful of the risks of US sanctions and its diplomatic ties with Israel and the Gulf states.
Overall, the increased US military presence and the strengthening of Iran-China defense ties mark a major shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.
Global markets are closely monitoring the situation, as any misstep has the potential to trigger a larger-scale conflict with broad implications for regional economic stability and security.
