A new week begins today (June 29, 2026) and it seems that the world economic calendar is once again packed with various high-impact data. Forex and bond traders around the world will now be fully focused on looking for clues on the direction of global central bank policies, especially The Fed and ECB.
Let's see what "holes" and big sentiments will shake the markets this week by country:
United States: 'NFP' Week!
This week the main focus will certainly be on the US labor market data, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) for June.
Special Time: Since this Friday is the US Independence Day holiday, NFP data will be reported early on Thursday!
Fed Signals: Previously, the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, gave a hawkish signal that rates may rise again this year in order to achieve the 2% inflation target. The market is forecasting an increase of 160,000 jobs (May: 172,000). If the data comes out strong, expectations of a September rate hike will soar and the USD will be the “King”. If it is weak, the USD risks being beaten.
Side Data: Before this Thursday’s NFP, traders can enjoy a ‘warm-up’ through the JOLTS data (Tuesday), ADP Payrolls (Wednesday), and ISM manufacturing data (Wednesday).
Europe: ‘Sharks’ Gathering at Sintra Forum
An elite event, the ECB Central Banking Forum will take place in Sintra, Portugal (June 29 – July 1).
Who’s In?: A line-up of the world’s central bank bosses including Christine Lagarde (ECB), Andrew Bailey (BoE), and Kevin Warsh (Fed) will gather. The market wants to see how the US – Iran interim peace announcement (which sent oil prices down) will affect their current policies.
Euro Inflation Data: This Wednesday there is Flash CPI (Inflation) data for the Eurozone. HSBC predicts inflation will ease slightly due to falling energy prices.
United Kingdom: Andy Burnham's First Speech
After the recent resignation of Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham is expected to take over as UK Prime Minister unopposed.
GBP Trader Focus: Burnham is scheduled to give a key speech on fiscal policy next week. Any comments on government spending and taxes will guide the direction of the Pound Sterling.
Economic Data: Bank of England mortgage approvals data (Monday), second reading of Q1 GDP (Tuesday), and Manufacturing PMI data (Wednesday).
Japan: Corporate Sentiment & National Debt Issues
Tankan Data (Wednesday): Markets are keen to see how the Middle East conflict and previous oil price volatility have affected Japanese giants through the Tankan corporate survey.
Bonanza Bond Auction: Japan's Finance Ministry will auction 2.6 trillion yen worth of 10-year bonds on Thursday. Investors are particularly sensitive to the auction due to fiscal discipline issues and the new PM, Sanae Takaichi's 370 trillion yen mega investment plan.
China: Is the Services Sector Starting to Slow Down?
This Tuesday, China's official Manufacturing PMI data will be released. Analysts predict the Manufacturing PMI will rise slightly to 50.1 (May: 50.0). However, the Non-Manufacturing PMI (Services Sector) is expected to fall to 50.0 due to unusually heavy rains in southern China that have disrupted tourism and outdoor activities.
Australia: RBA Meeting Minutes (Tuesday)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release its June Meeting Minutes tomorrow. After keeping interest rates unchanged at 4.35%, AUD traders will want to see if the RBA board still has the intention to raise rates again or if the rate hike phase in Australia has officially ended (as expected by Nomura).
Conclusion for Traders: This week is a very busy week full of volatility "mines", especially on Thursday due to the combination of NFP data and US pre-holidays. Make sure you set up your trading strategy correctly, maintain your account margin, and don't be greedy.
Are you ready to face the whipsaw this week? Which pair is on your radar?
