After the market went through a volatile phase at the beginning of the month, investors' attention has now turned to two key indicators of the United States (US) economy, namely Economic Growth (GDP) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.
These two data have the potential to be the main drivers of market sentiment this week. Investors want to see whether the US economy can still survive in a high interest rate environment or start showing signs of slowing down by the second half of 2026.
With no Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting this week, market movements are expected to be fully influenced by the upcoming economic data, especially towards the end of the week.
Tuesday (June 23, 2026)
Flash PMI Manufacturing & Services (9.45 pm) – This data provides an early picture of US business activity for June. A reading above 50 indicates that the sector is still expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Investors will be paying particular attention to the services sector as it is the backbone of the US economy. If the data is stronger than expected, it could be an early sign of USD strengthening throughout the week.
Thursday (June 25, 2026)
Thursday is expected to be the most important day of the week as three major data releases are released simultaneously at 8:30 PM.
Final GDP Q1 (Q1) – This data is the final reading of US economic growth for the first quarter of 2026. It will confirm whether the US economy is still growing strongly or is starting to be affected by high interest rates.
Core Durable Goods Orders – This data measures demand for durable goods such as industrial machinery and equipment. An increase in orders usually reflects the confidence of companies to continue investing and expanding their businesses.
Unemployment Claims – Weekly unemployment claims data is used to assess the state of the US labor market. A low reading indicates that the jobs market is still strong, while an increase in claims can be an early sign of economic weakness.
Market Implications
If GDP, Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment Claims all support a strong economic picture, the USD could strengthen while gold (XAU/USD) could be depressed.
Conversely, if these data disappoint, interest rate cut expectations could rise again and provide support to gold and risk assets.
Friday (June 26, 2026)
Core PCE Price Index (8.30pm) – This is the most important inflation data of the week and one of the key indicators monitored by the Federal Reserve in determining interest rate policy.
A higher than expected PCE reading would indicate continued inflationary pressures. This could reduce market expectations for an interest rate cut in the near future, thus supporting USD strength.
However, if inflation shows a more significant decline, the market could welcome the development. This sentiment could give the stock and gold markets room to continue their recovery before the close of the trading week.
This week will be a key test for the US economic narrative. The main focus of the market is on whether economic growth remains strong and whether inflation is truly moving towards the Fed's target.
The combination of GDP data on Thursday and Core PCE on Friday could potentially determine the direction of the USD, gold and global stock markets for the coming weeks.
