Many are unaware, but the biggest crisis that will hit Malaysian kitchens does not even come from within the country. It is forming simultaneously on two different sides of the world, and time to prepare is running out.
The Effects of War Reaching Our Kitchens
The war between the US and Iran that threatens the Strait of Hormuz is not just a story about rising oil prices on TV. It actually has another way to reach our rice plates, namely through fertilizer.
The Strait of Hormuz controls almost 20% of the world's energy flow. The same route is also the main route for exporting basic fertilizer materials such as urea and phosphate. When this route is blocked, global fertilizer prices soar, and Malaysia, which imports almost 98% of the main fertilizer, will definitely be affected first.
Another effect that is often overlooked comes from our chicken and egg industry. The sector depends 60 to 70% on imported bran. The cost of shipping goods has increased due to the risk of war, the cost of bran has also increased. Ultimately, the price of chicken and eggs in the market has had to rise.
El Niño Makes the Situation Worse
Simply put, El Niño occurs when the sea water temperature in the Pacific Ocean rises higher than normal. Like a big stove in the world that suddenly lights a stronger fire, this phenomenon changes wind and rain patterns around the world, including making some areas drier and hotter than normal.
MetMalaysia itself has confirmed that the process of warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean is currently active. This Super El Niño phenomenon is expected to peak between November 2026 and January 2027, with a probability of reaching 63% for the Strong to Very Strong category.
Because Malaysia is located quite far from the center of its formation in the Pacific Ocean, the real effects will only begin to be felt a little later, namely as early as January 2027, immediately after the Northeast Monsoon ends. This period of extreme drought is expected to last until around March 2027.
Malaysia is not the only one affected. Major rice-producing countries such as Vietnam, Thailand and India are also facing the risk of the same extreme weather. Malaysia only produces 52% of its own rice needs, the rest depends on these three countries.
The problem is, if the exporting country itself suffers from drought, they will prioritize their own people first. Export restrictions are also tightened, and Malaysia is forced to compete for supplies with other countries that are also in dire straits.
When these two crises collide, the effects are even worse. Farmers reduce fertilizer because the cost is no longer affordable, while El Niño brings drought that dries up water. Lack of fertilizer, no water, rice and vegetable harvests can decline much worse than normal seasons.
People Forced to Bear the Burden
The government is forced to bear the cost of subsidies that have ballooned to hold down the price of basic goods. To the point of having to order spending cuts at the ministry level. This is a sign that the burden is starting to weigh on all parties.
For the B40 and M40, the increase in retail prices is not just a number on the receipt. It is recorded right in the kitchen and pocket every day. Many have started to switch to cheaper brands, reduce side dishes, or cut other expenses, simply to ensure that the rice cooker remains full.
Not everyone has the option to save. Salaries remain the same, while prices continue to rise. That is the reality that many Malaysian families will soon face.
Key Takeaways
The US-Iran war in the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted fertilizer and bran exports, causing local farming and livestock costs to soar.
El Niño occurs when the temperature of the Pacific Ocean rises above normal, changing global weather patterns including triggering drought in many areas.
Super El Niño is expected to peak from November 2026 to January 2027, with significant effects starting to be felt in Malaysia as early as January 2027 to March 2027.
Malaysia relies on 98% of its fertilizer imports and the other half of its rice supply from Vietnam, Thailand and India, countries that are also exposed to the risk of drought.
The B40 and M40 groups are expected to feel the heaviest impact, as purchasing power is shrinking due to rising grocery prices.
This is not the time to panic, but it is also not the time to be complacent. Start planning your budget now, because every ringgit saved today may be your savior tomorrow.
