Global markets are now focusing on the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled to be released at 9.30pm tonight (Tuesday), with the unique feature of data for October and November being announced simultaneously.
This follows the longest US government shutdown in history lasting 43 days, which has delayed the publication of several major economic data before.
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The NFP release this time is expected to provide a more comprehensive picture of the true state of the US labor market, in addition to being an important determinant of the movement of the US dollar (USD) towards the end of 2025.
The labor market plays a critical role in determining the direction of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate policy. Weak labor data usually increases expectations of policy easing, while strong figures have the potential to delay any rate cuts.
Therefore, tonight's NFP report has the potential to reshape market expectations for the Fed's monetary policy for 2026, especially after a series of rate cuts that have been implemented previously.
Economic analysts expect a significant decline in the NFP figures for both upcoming months.
The figure for October is projected to be around 60,000, while November is estimated to be around 45,000, lower than the previous reading in September of 119,000.
If these projections come true, it has the potential to reinforce the narrative that the US labor market is heading towards a cooling phase, thus increasing pressure on the US dollar in the near term.
However, if the published data records a stronger reading than market expectations, it can reinforce the view that the Fed will delay policy easing, thus supporting the strengthening of the US dollar.
